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KMID : 1170320210270040027
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Korean Journal of Health Economics and Policy
2021 Volume.27 No. 4 p.27 ~ p.49
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Nursing Workforce Supply & Demand : Review and Prospect in South Korea
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Kim Jin-Hyun
Kwon Hyun-Jeong
Park Eun-Tae
Choi Ha-Young
Lee Sun-Mi
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Abstract
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The purpose of this study is to review and forecast nursing workforce supply & demand in South Korea by using a spline function regression model. The demand for registered nurses (RN) in 2020, which is reported to be 225,462 nurses has risen sharply mainly due to the integrated nursing care and service scheme in the national health insurance and the expansion of home visiting nurse program in the community. The reported 211,103 supply of licensed nurses in 2020 has rapidly increased due to the surge in the number of enrollments in nursing schools since 2008. After the end of the integrated nursing and care service scheme in 2023, the demand for RN is expected to slow down, and we forecasted the oversupply of RN in the long-term. The supply of RN is expected to be 616,986 in 2030 and 801,196 in 2040, and the clinical demand of RN is expected to be 285,151 in 2030 and 327,486 in 2040. The ratio of RN demand to RN supply is expected to decrease from 51.6% in 2020 to 46.2% in 2030 and 40.9% in 2040. In order to effectively utilize the oversupply of RNs in the future, we suggest to expand an RN-based chronic disease management project in the community and to establish nursing homes for long-term care services.
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KEYWORD
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nurse, nursing workforce, supply, demand, RN, forecast
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